Hottest analysis of the development of four major

Analysis of the development of the four major packaging film substrates in the first half of 2011

after singing all the way in 2010, the market showed a confused fatigue in 2011. Looking back at the first half of 2011, businesses passed through constant expectations and disappointments. The reason seems to be that the market is full of bad news, from macro-control to capacity expansion, and then to weak demand, which is hard injured

bopp: the market with rapid expansion of production capacity entered the downward channel

according to the statistics of Boyi information, the total production capacity of BOPP in China was 3million tons in 2010, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year; The total output is about 2.55 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. It is expected that by the end of 2011, about 150000 tons of new BOPP capacity will be released to the market. In general, BOPP capacity was in a period of rapid expansion from 2010 to 2012. However, looking back on the BOPP market trend in the first half of 2011, the trend of the second half of 2010 was continued from January to April. However, although the price was upward, the upward trend was very difficult. From May to June, the positive release was completed, the negative attack came, and the market entered the downward channel

the factors affecting BOPP trend are crude oil. The biggest factor affecting the crude oil market this year is geopolitics. The outbreak of the Libyan war has led to a sharp rise in oil prices. By mid April, Brent was close to $130. However, with the retreat of war factors, oil prices began to return rationally

second, macroeconomic. In the first half of the year, the inflation pressure in emerging economies continued to increase, and the Central Bank of China raised the reserve ratio six times to regulate inflation expectations. However, the tight monetary policy is obviously not very effective in curbing inflation. On the contrary, it is effective in curbing the economy, and the momentum of economic growth is weakening. In addition, the European economic situation needs to exit the software before shutting down. The equipment is complex, and the scope of the European debt crisis continues to expand. Although the United States has maintained a good recovery momentum since the beginning of the year, the adverse factors of economic growth are also increasing. The growth of consumer spending, government spending, commercial investment and so on has slowed down, which will continue to be a drag on economic growth

third, the relationship between supply and demand. In the first half of this year, there was not a large number of new capacity on the supply side of BOPP put on the market. On the contrary, power rationing factors had a certain impact on the supply side before May. Factories in East China were underemployed, and the light demand also offset the reduction in supply. The input parameters of market supply and demand were in a moderate balance. In addition, the state's strict control over food safety is also an important factor. Plasticizer storm hit, and the rectification of the food industry has a direct impact on the demand for packaging

fourth, business mentality. From January to April, under the influence of soaring oil prices, businesses still have confidence in the market, especially traders, who increase their positions most of the time. However, just in May, the sharp decline of commodities, gold, silver and other futures directly affected the mentality of merchants in the plastic market, and the market sold enthusiastically for a time

in addition, the impact of related film linkage, such as the decline of BOPET film price, is also linked to the trend of BOPP to a certain extent

BOPET: last year's ice and fire double sky

compared with last year's huhushengwei, the BOPET market in the year of the rabbit is also much tame, and it can even be said to be ice and fire double sky. For the sharp decline of BOPET, what market participants denounce is nothing more than the expansion of production capacity and the weakening of exports. According to the statistics of BOPET Association, the new capacity in 2010 was 175000 tons; In 2011, BOPET estimated that Xiamen Institute of technology, the world society of plastic Engineers (SPE) and the Taiwan computer aided Molding Technology Exchange Association (ACMT) would add 550000 tons of capacity, including 105000 tons of thick film capacity; In 2012, the new production capacity was 320000 tons, including 30000 tons of thick film. It is expected that China's BOPET production capacity will double within two years, exceeding 2million tons, which is much faster than the expected demand growth. In terms of exports, the number of BOPET exports has decreased sharply since February. As for the BOPET market, India, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries with the largest exports last year have released their domestic production capacity this year. Therefore, the procurement facing China has decreased

cpp: supply exceeds demand and low profit operation

cpp market in recent years, the continuous influencing factor is the contradiction between supply and demand. The continuous release of domestic production capacity makes it difficult for the industry to escape low profit operation. In the first half of this year, the trend is even more so. On the one hand, it is facing the scarcity and high level of cobalt, which is indispensable for import. On the other hand, the processing space of the membrane plant is being compressed. However, the profit margin of CPP market is not large, so compared with the other three substrates, the decline of film price is not large

bopa: the downward part of the transaction price is now at a loss

BOPA's market in the first half of the year showed a consistent downward trend with other flexible packaging substrates. As the demand gradually shrinks, the inventory of each membrane plant is gradually high, and the upstream raw materials are lower, so the transaction price of the membrane plant is all the way down; The membrane plant compresses the processing space. As of the press date, BOPA membrane plant has been operating at a low profit, and some manufacturers have even suffered losses. Although exports maintained good volume growth in March and April, domestic demand was sluggish and the market was difficult to strengthen