Hottest analysis steel 13th five year plan situati

Analysis: steel "13th five year plan" situation prediction and policy orientation

analysis: steel "13th five year plan" situation prediction and policy orientation

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steel, an indispensable raw material for human beings. All industries are highly related to steel. It used to be like this, and it will be like this in the future. Because of the high degree of correlation, the development of iron and steel is driven: when the economy goes up, iron and steel "is developed"; With the economic downturn, steel is "not developed"

from 5.35 million tons of steel in 1957 to 92.6 million tons of steel in 1994, the average annual growth rate of China's iron and steel industry was only 2.5% in 37 years, because during that period, especially the ten-year "Cultural Revolution", China's economy was small and the development of production factors was not fast

from 100 million tons in 1996 to 780 million tons in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 13% in 17 years; From 2001 to 2007, the average annual growth rate was as high as 19%, because during this period, China's economy developed rapidly and the market demand for steel was rapid

during the 2008 financial crisis, the economy went down and steel fell. In 2009, "4trillion" stimulated investment, and steel expanded vigorously again, with a growth rate of 21.5% that year. In the four years from 2009 to 2012, the new production capacity was nearly 300 million tons, which was the period of the largest increase in steel production capacity, resulting in China's steel production capacity reaching 1.1 billion tons by the end of 2014

now the economy is down, and the demand for steel is also down. In 2013, the growth rate of steel production fell sharply to single digits, and further declined in 2014, with an increase of only 0.9%. It is estimated that there will be zero or negative growth in 2015. The demand for steel has come down, but the production capacity cannot come down for a while, forming a surplus situation

what will be the development trend of iron and steel during the next "13th five year plan"? First of all, we should also look at the trend of China's economic development

the "13th five year plan" coincides with the delay of global economic recovery and the complex and volatile world situation. Affected by this, the so-called "three-phase superposition" factors that restrict China's economic development have been amplified, forcing China's economy to enter the "new normal", and there is great downward pressure on the economy. In the first quarter of this year, GDP fell to 7%. In April, a number of economic data were not good-looking, and the downward pressure was further increased

according to the previous relationship between GDP and steel consumption intensity, GDP is 7%, and the growth of steel should be 3%. According to this calculation, it is impossible to reach 950million tons of steel by the end of the 13th five year plan, because the composition of GDP has changed greatly

in the "three carriages" of investment, export and consumption, the contribution rate of investment has always been more than 50%, while consumption is less than 35%. As the main driving factor of steel "being developed" is investment, steel consumption intensity is very high when the proportion of investment is very high; In the future, the contribution rate of consumption and investment should be transposed, that is, investment accounts for 30% and consumption accounts for 60%, while consumption can not drive the demand for steel. With the sharp decline in the proportion of investment, the demand for steel shrinks, and the intensity of steel consumption decreases greatly with the same GDP. Therefore, 7% GDP cannot drive the growth of steel by 3%. The same is true of the actual situation. At present, the investment in fixed assets has fallen to 12%, down by half, and the apparent consumption of domestic steel has begun to grow negatively. If it is not for the increase of steel exports, the steel output has also increased negatively

from the perspective of investment composition, with the progress of science and technology, especially the progress of manufacturing industry, the intensity of steel consumption is also decreasing. The trend of high reinforcement and reduction of steel consumption in China has become more and more obvious. It is not impossible to reduce 80million tons of steel consumption in the future

one is the change in the composition of GDP and the other is the change in the composition of investment. The superposition of these two factors has continuously reduced the intensity of steel consumption in China. In 2005, the consumption of steel in 10000 yuan GDP was more than 200 kg, decreased to 174 kg in 2007, and only 110 kg in 2014, with an average annual decrease of 12 kg. Even according to the decreasing rate before 2014, it will drop to 5 at the end of the 13th five year plan, which is about 0 kg higher than that of ordinary plastic materials; Taking into account the composition of GDP and investment under the new economic normal, it will drop to 20-30 kg by the end of the 13th five year plan. If the GDP increases by 3.6 trillion yuan per year during the 13th Five Year Plan period, it is enough to increase steel by 7.2 to 9 million tons per year

the reason why the steel output of developed countries in the world began to drop sharply to 500 kg per capita in 5 to 10 years after the per capita steel production reached 600 kg is that the intensity of steel consumption has been greatly reduced. China's per capita steel production has now exceeded 600 kg. According to the trajectory of developed countries, steel production will begin to decline significantly after 2019. Based on 500 kg per capita, the steel output will drop to about 680 million tons, that is, the current 800 million tons will be reduced by 100 million to 120 million tons

to sum up, China's steel industry will show the following characteristics during the 13th Five Year Plan Period:

1. Steel production will decline year by year, and will drop to about 700 million tons by the end of the 13th five year plan. The "13th five year plan" period is the most serious overcapacity of China's steel industry, the most difficult period for enterprises, and also the period with the greatest pressure of transformation and upgrading. The past three years have only been "winter", and in the future, it will enter "cold winter"

2. The polarization of iron and steel enterprises has intensified, and a number of enterprises, especially inefficient enterprises that fail to meet the compliance review, environmental protection standards, long-term losses and tight capital chain, will be out of the market. If the exit channel policy is implemented, the outgoing enterprises will go bankrupt, close down or be merged, and the bank's financial risks will become apparent; Otherwise, financial risks and social stability will still coexist. At the same time, another group of enterprises' transformation and upgrading have produced positive results, survived and gradually improved their benefits

3. The merger and reorganization within the province and region has made progress, and the concentration has increased, but it is still far from the goal of forming the so-called three to five super large enterprises across the country. In the future, the layout of China's steel enterprises must be the combination of large, medium and small, and the combination of comprehensiveness and specialization

4. Resolving overcapacity is a long-term process, and the overcapacity situation cannot be fundamentally improved during the 13th Five Year Plan period. This is because: according to the future economic development trend of our country, the speed of resolving production capacity can not catch up with the decline of steel demand, the excess stock is resolved, and new excess is generated. Developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea have had overcapacity for more than ten or even thirty years, and we cannot escape this trajectory

5. The benefit is still meager

to cope with the "cold winter", the steel industry needs the following policy orientation:

1. Banks should not "cut across the board" the steel industry, and should not give new loans or even withdraw loans. Last year, banks lent more than 130 billion yuan to steel enterprises, and the loan balance of the steel industry decreased by nearly 70 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, which is related to the continued suspension and withdrawal of loans by banks. At present, M2 growth hit a 20-year low, and the bank's new loan target did not meet expectations, which cannot be said to have nothing to do with this. The reduction of steel production capacity cannot be good or bad, and all steel enterprises should be killed. Good steel enterprises should be given loan support. We should prevent large-scale deaths of steel enterprises due to policy reasons

2. Steel enterprises should be encouraged to go global. Now steel enterprises are actively responding to the call of the state to resolve excess capacity. Taking advantage of the "the Belt and Road" opportunity, more than 10 enterprises have done due diligence in six countries including the Middle East and Southeast Asia, striving to deploy sites and transfer domestic excess capacity. However, there are also many specific problems, and the relevant state departments should strengthen guidance

3. The merger and reorganization policy should be refined, and the exit channel should be implemented. We should not stop at shouting slogans and setting targets

4. Relevant national ministries will make the pressure not high. We should seriously formulate the 13th five year plan for the iron and steel industry, and formulate the 13th five year plan with innovative thinking, more guidance and less instructions; More services, less slogans; More markets, less administration. We should attach importance to the role of entrepreneurs and the role of market mechanisms. Governments at all levels should take a positive attitude to help enterprises resolve production capacity, help enterprises create an environment for green production, joint restructuring and going out, and deal with and balance the relationship between reducing production capacity and structural adjustment, as well as the relationship between environmental law enforcement and environmental governance